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ATP Tour Finals Prediction |
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Author: Ian Hudson 14/11/2011
20th - 27th ATP Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, London, England
Roger Federer seems to be as good as ever and he can take his form of the last two weeks to successfully defend the ATP Tour Finals which take place at the O2 Arena in London and begin on Sunday. The event will be televised live in full by Sky Sports and the BBC may even provide some terrestrial coverage of Andy Murray's matches.
The top eight players in the points ranking qualify for the season end finale and Federer will arrive in London in the best form of the group. He has played indoors on hardcourts for the last two weeks. He won his fifth Basel Open and then the Paris Masters at the weekend for the first time in his career.
He was never in much trouble against Jo-Wilfred Tsonga in France. The local favourite had two break points in Federer's first service game but that's as good as it got for Tsonga. Federer won the first set with impeccable play. Even though the second set went to a tie break it was no surprise that Federer closed out the match with some ease.
On current form Federer is a worthy favourite to win again in London. He has won his last ten matches indoors on hardcourts. In those ten matches he has lost just one set, in Basel, so played the Paris 1000 Masters tournament without been taken to a deciding set. Tsonga was on a run of eight wins to one before playing Federer but he never looked like beating the former world number one.
Twelve months ago Federer bear Rafael Nadal in the final. It was Federer's 5th title of the year and 66th of his career. It was his 5th win at the event, having also won in 2003, 2004, 2006 and 2007. The Swiss player completed the tournament unbeaten in a final that lasted over 97 minutes. However, Nadal continued to lead the head to heads against Federer and in the ATP world ranking.
At the start of the year Novak Djokovic was third in the rankings. Federer and Nadal had shared 24 of the previous 28 major titles. Djokovic lost just four times in 2011 and on two of those occasions he was forced to retire due to injury. He is now statistically the best player in the world and no-one can question the validity of the rankings.
The Serb won three Grand Slam titles in 2011, in Melbourne, London and New York. The only blemish on an almost faultless season came at the French Open in Paris. He lost in the semi-final to Federer in four sets. Federer required a tie break in two of the sets he won. Revelling in his role as underdog the Swiss legend was at his vintage best, seizing the initiative at all the right times, winning most of the big points and toughening it out when necessary.
The season's highlights for Djokovic was beating Nadal at Wimbledon and the US Open. He beat Nadal in each of the six matches they played during the season. Djokovic has been just about unbeatable this year but it has been a long and demanding season and he does look vulnerable under the playing conditions in London.
On first glance it looks like Nadal has had a relatively poor season as his tennis was somewhat below the level of previous years. The problem was that he faced Djokovic in six finals and lost them all. The highlight for Nadal was winning the French Open for the sixth time, matching the record of Bjorn Borg. However, the indoor courts in November are totally different proposition to the clay in spring. He has never produced his best tennis at the end of the year and could be ready for a rest and to prepare for being more competitive against Djokovic next year.
Andy Murray has yet to win a major title but he only loses to the very best in the latter stages of these grand Slam tournaments. He was thrashed by Djokovic in the final of the Australian Open and was beaten in the semi-finals of the other three majors, on each occasion by Nadal. His best chance probably came at Wimbledon but he allowed the loss of point to totally unsettle him.
Murray has finished the season in probably the best form of his year. He won three straight tournaments on the Asian swing and that helped him to overtake Federer in the rankings. Despite this autumn run Murray will feel frustrated that he again failed to win a major. He will have plenty of support in London and he looks set to reach the semi-finals at least.
For the first time since 2002, Federer didn't win a major championship. He has won 16 in all which is a record but as the competition has intensified he may never win another one. His best chance will be at Wimbledon, the only surface on which he has a slight edge. He played superbly to beat Djokovic in Paris but was overwhelmed by Nadal in the final. However, he often finds something extra at the season's finale and he can add to his record of five titles in the past eight tour finals.
The four other contenders look like being outclassed by the big four. David Ferrer is too reliant on his return to trouble them while Thomas Berdych is prone to choking at crucial stages of his matches. Jo-Wilfred Tsonga has the game but not the consistency to win at this level and Mardy Fish is a journeyman who will have his limitations exposed in London.
Federer has the current form and event form and is rightly favourite. Depending on how the draw pans out I anticipate a final against Andy Murray and disappointment for the British player.
ATP World Tour Finals - Winner Roger Federer at 3.1 with Betfair