| Tweet |
|
Australian Open Prediction
Author: Ian Hudson 08/11/2011
2011 November 10th - 13th Australian PGA Tour: Emirates Australian Open, The Lakes GC, New South Wales, Australia.
Tiger Woods is the second favourite to win the Australian Open beginning this Thursday as he begins a road trip that will culminate in the President's Cup next week.
Woods did not earn enough points to qualify for the team by rights but he was an obvious wildcard pick by Fred Couples who captains the United States team. The former world number one has appeared in six President's Cup. He is beginning his preparation by competing in the Australian Open for the first time in his fifteen years.
Tiger has fallen to 56 in the world rankings and has not won a tournament since November 2009. He failed to qualify for the FedEx Cup play-offs, not surprisingly as he only played in two qualifying tournaments towards the end of the US Tour schedule. He played in one Fall Series event, making the cut without getting into contention.
The President's Cup is a series of matches between teams representing the United States and an International team comprising players from the rest of the world but not including Europeans. The matches are contested biennially by two teams of twelve.
Initially it was held in even numbered years, with the Ryder Cup being held in odd numbered years. However, the cancellation of the 2001 Ryder Cup pushed both events back one year and the President's Cup is now held in odd numbered years.
The first President's Cup was held in 1994 and there have been nine renewals in total. The United States have won the matches on seven occasions while the International team have won the event just once. The event was tied in 2003 when it was played in the US. The Internationals have only ever won at home. They beat the Americans in 1998 at Royal Melbourne Golf Club, the course to be used this year.
The International team contains three rookies, players who have not played in the event before. The highest world ranked player in the team is Jason Day who currently stands seventh in the official world rankings. The lowest ranked player is Retief Goosen at 54. The average ranking within the side is 35 and only two players are not within the top fifty players in the world.
The United States team includes six President Cup rookies. The highest ranked player is Dustin Johnson at number five. The lowest ranked player is Woods. This is his seventh appearance in the event and in the past he has always been the world's number one at the time of the event. The average ranking within the US team is 19th in the current standings. .
The International team can boast a total of twenty six appearances in the President's Cup. Players from the States playing this year's event have played in the matches on twenty eight occasions in the past. The one notable difference between the President's Cup and Ryder Cup is that every player has to play on both of the first two days which means that even the rookies have some experience before the crucial final day singles.
With Woods in the side the Americans clearly have the most major championship winners appearing this year. Six of their players have won majors and their total wins of the Grand Slam tournaments is nineteen, though Woods has fourteen of these. The International team includes five major champions but their total is nine majors. Therefore, if you take Woods out of the equation the International have won four more majors than their opponents.
In predicting the winners of the matches the biggest factor is the host course. Royal Melbourne takes a fair amount of learning and it's not an easy course by any means. The non-playing captain is Greg Norman so his side will be assured of support from the galleries. More of his players will be acquainted with the course and that will be a massive help. I can see the Internationals feeding of their followers to win by about 3 points.
As far as the Australian Open is concerned, at first glance 11.0 appears a huge price for Woods. Five years ago he would have been about 2/1 to win a tournament with an equivalent quality of field. However, the reason Woods is playing this week is to get more tournament play under his belt before the President's Cup and his lack of activity on the course explains why he is such a price.
Conversely, the price still looks too big to lay Woods. At his best he would be capable of beating this field by five shots. So, the recommendation is to swerve Woods from a backing or laying perspective. Three of the four shortest priced players in the field are Australian. The freshest is probably Jason Day who unlike Adam Scott and Geoff Ogilvy didn't play in China at the HSBC Champions tournament. I'll be backing Day to win his national Open at 12.5 on Betfair.
Golf Betting Tip: Australian Open Jason Day at 12.5 with Betfair