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Davis Cup Prediction |
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Author: Ian Hudson 28/11/2011
December 2011 2nd - 4th Davis Cup by BNP Paribas: World Group Final: Spain v Argentina, Olympic Stadium, Seville, Spain.
Many speculators would see making 21% on an investment in three days as a good trade. That is the opportunity that exists by backing Spain to win the Davis Cup when they meet Argentina over five rubbers in Seville beginning on Friday. The hosts have used home advantage to choose a surface on which their players are most comfortable.
The Davis Cup is the most prestigious team event in men's tennis. The world's 16 best national teams qualify for the World Group. Nations that are not in this section of the competition compete in one of three regions zones, namely the Americas, Asia/Oceania and Europe/Africa.
Teams in the World Group play an elimination tournament over four rounds, culminating in a final which takes place in Spain this week. The defending champions and runners-up are always the top seeds in the tournament. The losers in the first round contest a play-off match when they play winners from the regional groups.
The United States have won the event the most times (32) followed by Australia, Great Britain, France and Sweden. Spain have won the Davis Cup on four occasions, each time since 2000. Argentina have never won the Cup but have been losing finalists three times. The holders are Serbia who beat France in the final twelve months ago.
Each tie consists of five rubbers, which are played over three days. The winner of the tie is the nation which wins 3 or more of the 5 rubbers. On the first day two singles matches are played. On the second day the doubles rubber is played. On the third day the final two rubbers are usually reverse singles in which the first day opponents are not allowed to meet again.
Before the final and all other ties in the competition the captain of each team chooses a squad of four players. On the day before play starts, the order of play for the first day is drawn. Current rules allow the captain to nominate any player to play in the third day singles. There is no restriction on which players can contest the doubles match.
In the context of this year's final in which there is a short priced favourite it is significant that there may be changes to the final day singles matches. If the match has already been won the team captain may replace the players who contested the first day singles. It is common for younger or lower-ranked team members to play the remaining dead rubbers.
A massive factor in determining the outcome of the winner is the surface which is selected by the highest ranked seed. This year Spain have an advantage by deciding that the final will be played on clay. Due to weather conditions when the final is played in the Northern Hemisphere it is played indoors. Spain have created the red-dirt surface at their indoor arena in Seville.
Spain have not lost a tie at home since 1999 when they lost to Brazil in the World Group First Round. They started their 2011 campaign by beating Belgium. In the following round they came away from the United States with a win. In the semi-finals they beat a powerful French team on clay. Spain have won each of the three matches played between the finalists, most notably when they won the final in Argentina three years ago.
The Argentineans have played five away ties in the last two years. They have beaten Russia, Sweden and Serbia in these matches. Argentina beat Romania in the first round at home and then outclassed Kazakhstan in the next round. The real test came in the semi-finals when they beat Novak Djokovic's Serbia.
Spain's team leader is Rafael Nadal who is the second best player in the world on current rankings. Nadal didn't seem well prepared for the ATP Tour Finals last week in London. He looked drained and ill in his match against Mardy fish and was totally outclassed by Roger Federer in a round-robin match.
Nadal will be totally focused for the match against Argentina. Clay is his favourite surface and he will feel comfortable in the playing conditions in Seville. He has won the French Open six times and he has by far the best stats of any current player on the surface. I can see Nadal winning his two singles matches with ease so Spain would only need one more rubber to clinch the tie.
David Ferrer has been selected for the squad and he is likely to play in the second singles on the first day. He has had an excellent season and qualified for the tour finals. He would be the favourite whoever he plays in the singles. Home advantage should also inspire Spain's chosen doubles partners to clinch the tie on the second day.
If the tie stands at 3-0 after the first three rubbers teams may not play their best players in the dead rubbers. Spain's motivation may drop a little and that could provide an opportunity for Argentina to win one or two of the third day rubbers. If backing Spain at 1.21 is not attractive I suggest a speculative bet on them to win the tie 3-2 or 4-1.
Davis Cup Tennis bet
Spain at 1.21 with Betfair
Spain to win the tie 3-2 or 4-1 (markets for these bets should appear later in the week)