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Derby and Oaks
Derby and Oaks Spread Betting Preview
The third and fourth Classics of the season take place this weekend and Spread bettors will have been focusing on the Oaks and Derby ever since the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas were wrapped up. The look of the boy's race has changed dramatically in recent days with the withdrawal of red-hot ante-post favourite St Nicholas Abbey. Last season's runaway Racing Post Trophy winner would have surely gone off at the top of the Sporting Index win index had he not suffered an injury and the race now has an open look to it. Aidan O'Brien still has a strong hand with Jan Vermeer, Midas Touch and potentially Cape Blanco, but Spread betting punters will be aware that he hasn't actually won the race since High Chaparral in 2002. Irish trainers have won the last two renewals, though, and O'Brien is the only one with runners left in if that record is to continue.
This has been a good race for followers of favourites in recent years and SP spread sellers will be hoping that continues. Four of the past six market leaders have been successful and the biggest priced winner in the past decade was Sinndar in 2000 at 7/1. Frankie Dettori doesn't have a great record in this race, winning it just the once in 2007 aboard Peter Chapple-Hyam's classy Authorized. However, he will still have plenty of supporters on the spreads and will try to give trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni a first taste of Classic success on Rewilding. This son of Tiger Hill won impressively at Goodwood last month and will be trying to emulate Troy, the last winner of the then titled Predominate Stakes to go on to win at Epsom.
Sea The Stars will go down as one of the greatest racehorses of all time and he won last year's race by a winning margin of 1¾ lengths. Spread punters playing the winning distance markets will be interested to learn that two of the last five winners have won by a margin of 5 lengths. However, those buying distances on the spreads will be hoping for a repeat of Shergar's 10-length romp in 1981.
Henry Cecil is the undisputed king of the fillies and he will be going for his ninth Oaks win, after narrowly failing to claim it last year. His Midday was beaten a head by the 9/4 favourite Sariska and spread bettors will be keeping Aviate and Timepiece on side this time around. If the Derby is an open race, then the Oaks is about as open as a Classic can get. There will be plenty of questions for the spread betting public to answer if they're to find the winner amongst this field.
SP spread betting sellers have done well, by and large, in this race in recent times. Since Cecil's Ramruma won the Oaks in 1999, six favourites have obliged and only one horse bigger than 13/2 has won in that time. However, that was a big shock when Look Here won at 33/1 in 2008. There has been an interesting pattern emerge when it comes to winning distances in this race for spread bettors to consider. In the last six years, three of the races have been won by margins of 3 ¾, 6 and 7 lengths, while the other three sandwiched between those have been 1 ½, ½ and last year's head. If the pattern is to continue, we could be set for an easy Oaks victory.