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England v Scotland Predicition
Author: Ian Hudson 27/09/2011
2011 Rugby World Cup
England v Scotland, Eden Park, Auckland (0830 BST)
If England beat Scotland in their World Cup match on Saturday they qualify as pool winners. The match is being played at a viewer friendly time of 8.30am UK time and it could command one the biggest television audiences of the year for a sporting event.
The rivalry between these two countries is one of the oldest and most passionate in the history of any sport. There have been 128 matches played between the teams and England have won 68 (53%). There have an above average amount of draws, with 18 (14%) matches ending in stalemate.
The average point's difference per game is 2.84 in England's favour. The average number of points per game is remarkably low at just over 20. Backing this eventuality on the exchange markets gives punters a distinct statistical advantage.
The two teams have met on one occasion in each of the last ten years. The head to-head is in England's favour at 7 to 2, with one game ending in a draw. Over that period England have scored 257 points and conceded 159.
The average point's difference is in England's favour at 9.8 so England's dominance has been substantially greater in the last 10 years compared to the total time spell over which these nations have met. The average number of points in the last ten games between the sides is over 40.
The statistics indicate England should win by about 10 points and the total number of points should be about 40. That would suggest England winning the game 25-15, enough to win the group and then face a potential quarter-final match against France in Auckland.
The final standings in the pool could still be determined by bonus points, which reward successful attacking play and defensive solidity. A try-scoring bonus point can be won by going over the line at least four times. A team that loses by seven points or less receives a losing bonus point.
There are still plenty of potential scenarios that could transpire depending on the outcome of this match. If England win and Scotland fail to win a bonus point Scotland would be eliminated. However, if Scotland lose but win a bonus point they would qualify as long as Georgia beat Argentina by more than seven points.
The outcome becomes somewhat less clear if England fail to win. If Scotland and Argentina win with a bonus point and England lose by eight or more then England are out. You can still bet on the pool winner. England are massive favourites at 1.05 but there is little between the prices for Scotland and Argentina to qualify.
The pool is basically now becoming a knock-out affair and the match between England and Scotland will determine which side will progress. If England take anything for granted it could all go wrong. They need to pick out the best combination of the three sides that we have seen over the last three weeks.
In some ways this is an ideal fixture for Scotland, one to focus the mind after the heartbreak of losing to Argentina. They did everything right for the majority of that game and only lost due to one brilliant try by Argentina. Even then they had a chance to land a crucial drop goal in the last minute but the opportunity was not taken.
England are at an advantage in terms of their experience of playing big games. The knock-out system at the end of the Premiership season means a good number of these players are used to the high pressure matches.
However, there is another factor to take into account. The weather can make all the statistics superfluous. England have not played in any conditions other than perfect at this World Cup. Scotland have now played two tough test matches in poor conditions. If conditions are testing that will help the Scots as they know how to deal with wet weather.
Finally, we shouldn't underestimate a team coached by Andy Robinson. He is one of the best coaches in the game and will have prepared his team to maximise their efforts in terms of physical condition and confidence. Even so I'm relying on the stats and suggest England can win this game by 8 to 12 points.
Match Prediction: England v Scotland:
Winning Margin England under 12.5pts at 2.32 with Betfair
Total Game Score 31 - 40 Points at 3.5 with Betfair
Bet365 World Cup Rugby Odds