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Rugby World Cup Final Prediction
Rugby World Cup Final 2011: 23 October
France v New Zealand
(Eden Park, Auckland, 0900 BST)
Author: Ian Hudson 18/10/2011
New Zealand are now just 1.13 favourites to beat France and win the Rugby World Cup for the second time. The hosts have only won the inaugural tournament in 1987 and they should have the ability and experience to beat the French in Sunday's final.
On current form the All Blacks should have too much in all departments to win the match. However, covering the handicap which has been generally set at 15 points is another matter. Bet365's line is seventeen and at that number you can back New Zealand at even money.
In order to establish whether the home side can overcome a 15 point deficit I've looked at some relevant statistics. As two of the leading eight international rugby playing nations there is plenty of collateral form to assess but I'll begin by examining the most recent form that has been shown in this tournament.
In reaching this stage of the tournament both sides have played four pool matches and two knockout games. In the pool stages New Zealand scored 240 points at an average of 60 points per game. The French tally in their group was just 124 points.
The two finalists were in the same pool so we have the rare occurrence in any tournament format of teams playing each other on two occasions. New Zealand won the pool match by 37 points to 17 so a strict interpretation of that result suggests they can cover the handicap. This is the third time that France have reached the final of the World Cup but have lost both matches by at least 20 points.
I've watched most of France's matches and nothing I've seen convinces me they can prevent New Zealand celebrating a second world title. They lost two matches in the group stages and even in winning their two knockout matches have not shown enough to suggest they have a chance of causing an upset.
France were a total shambles against Tonga and only qualified for the last eight with a try in the last minute. They turned down the opportunity to kick an easy penalty which if converted would have seen them through. That incident showed a lack of communication and they were very fortunate that such a gamble was rewarded with a try.
In beating England I don't think France showed a massive turnaround in form. Apparently a gag doing the rounds on the web is that England didn't let the World Cup get in the way of a good stag do. Possibly harsh but there is no doubt that England were a huge disappointment on and off the field. Mike Tindall has no chance of getting a knighthood now.
Wales were desperately unlucky to lose to France in the semi-finals. The sending off of captain Sam Warburton will be analysed and debated in Cardiff and the valleys for many years to come. The ex-rugby playing pundits all agreed a sending-off was harsh for such a tackle though one sports journalist did comment that it was a very dangerous contact which could have caused serious injury.
Even with a one man disadvantage Wales came desperately close to winning the match which they eventually lost 9-8. The conversion attempt from the only try of the semi-final hit the outside of the post. A penalty taken from just inside the French half was about a yard short and two relatively easy penalties were missed in the first half.
Despite not playing well France are in the final but New Zealand's progress to this stage of the competition has been much more convincing. Their supporters believe that the defeat of Australia was the decisive result and if they can beat their trans-Tasman rivals then a win over France should be a relatively straightforward assignment.
There have been fifty Test matches between New Zealand and France. The hosts have won 37 of those matches and there has been just one draw. The average point's difference per game between the two sides is just over 11 points in favour of New Zealand.
The two nations have played each other ten times since 2004 and New Zealand have won on eight occasions. The only time France won in New Zealand over that spell was in the summer of 2009. Two years ago France lost in Paris to their hosts by a massive 27 points.
Indeed New Zealand have won on their last four visits to France over the last eight years, though they did lose the quarter final between the sides at the last World Cup. New Zealand have shown that they are a better side than France, not only in this World Cup but in other recent matches between the sides. If they can reproduce that proven level of form they will win the final and overcome a 15 point handicap.
Rugby World Cup Final Prediction: New Zealand -16.5 at 10/11 with bet365
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