Racing Post Chase
Racing Post Chase 3.10 Kempton, Saturday 27th February 2010
The best betting race this week promises to be the Racing Post Chase at Kempton on Saturday.Despite having a limited history (first run 1988), the race has a tremendous history, with the 1990 running arguably providing Desert Orchid with his greatest career success.
The flamboyant grey lumped 12st 3lbs to victory that day, giving weight and beating to the high-class Delius and showing himself to be one of the most charismatic and courageous of his - or any - generation.
Other notable winners have been Rhyme 'n' Reason, Docklands Express (twice), Rough Quest, Gloria Victis, Marlborough and Nacarat.
The trends/stats fiends will be all over the weight carried by the winner profile of recent winners.
Since Super Tactics carried 10-10 to win 1998, only Gunther McBride (10-3 in 2002) has carried a light-weight to victory and of the last eleven winners, no less than nine have carried 11st or more.
The other historical trend of interest relates to the age of the winner, with ten of the last 16 winners being aged eight years or under.
One completely irrelevant snippet can be gleaned from the list of winning jockeys …… nine of the last 14 successful pilots have Christian names starting with the letter 'R'.
So, a quick glance at the entries, might lead you to conclude that the seven year old Possol, carrying 11st 1lb and ridden by Richard Johnson will win on Saturday!
Three that catch the eye at this early stage are Nacarat, Trabolgan and Kilcrea Castle.
The defending champion and impressive 2009 winner Nacarat looks a worthy market leader.
The grey nine-year-old put up a tremendous performance twelve months ago, with AP McCoy driving his mount from the front, getting some great jumps from his mount and coming clear from before home turn to beat Possol by nine lengths.
Nacarat went on to ruin a great race behind Voy Por Ustedes in a Grade One at Aintree.
This season expectations were high that Nacarat could develop into a top class three miler, but a poor effort at Exeter on his debut, followed by a feeble run over hurdles at Newbury put a dent into those ambitions.
Tom George's charge regained a lot of his credibility with a much better run in the King George, when taking on Kauto Star down the far side on the final circuit before having to give best against the mighty Ditcheat champion up the home straight.
Racing off a mark of 158 this weekend (won last year off 147), Nacarat will benefit from bring reunited with the champion jockey and looks certain to be a serious contender.
In 2004 Nicky Henderson saddled the veteran Marlborough to win this race off top weight, and this Saturday another veteran, the 12 year old Trabolgan, looks to have a sporting chance of at least making the frame.
Beset by injuries throughout his career, the King's Ride gelding has raced just eight times over fences and twelve times in total, but has put up some notable performances. His highlights have been a second spot in the Feltham, a win in the RSA (2005) and a success in the 2005 Hennessy at Newbury. Since that famous win at the Berkshire track, Trabolgan has been out just three times, but showed on his most recent run at Cheltenham in December that there is still fire in his belly.
Race off 138, the veteran ran a decent fourth to the progressive trio of The Package, The Tother One and Any Currency. If able to reproduce that form on a course he likes, Trabolgan could surprise a few of his younger rivals on Saturday.
If often pays to take note of ante-post market moves for these major handicaps and one entry that has been consistently supported since the weights were published has been Kilcrea Castle.
Emma Lavelle's Irish import was having his first run in the UK when an excellent third to the rejuvenated The Sawyer at Ascot last month.
Kilcrea Castle glided into contention from the halfway point, but in a fiercely run race, the eight-year-old was unable to sustain his effort from the home turn and his lack of race fitness showed. However, he finished a very respectable third, giving the strong impression that there would be better to come on his next start.
His back form in Ireland reveals a consistent performer with some good efforts in graded and handicap company. A mark of 142 looks very fair and bearing in mind the support seen in the last few days, it would be no surprise to see Kilcrea Castle in contention as the field come to the last three fences.
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