Racing Post Chase
Racing Post Chase 3.10 Kempton, Saturday 27th February 2010
The best betting race this week promises to be the Racing Post Chase at Kempton on Saturday.Despite having a limited history (first run 1988), the race has a tremendous history, with the 1990 running arguably providing Desert Orchid with his greatest career success.
The flamboyant grey lumped 12st 3lbs to victory that day, giving weight and beating to the high-class Delius and showing himself to be one of the most charismatic and courageous of his - or any - generation.
Other notable winners have been Rhyme 'n' Reason, Docklands Express (twice), Rough Quest, Gloria Victis, Marlborough and Nacarat.
The trends/stats fiends will be all over the weight carried by the winner profile of recent winners.
Since Super Tactics carried 10-10 to win 1998, only Gunther McBride (10-3 in 2002) has carried a light-weight to victory and of the last eleven winners, no less than nine have carried 11st or more.
The other historical trend of interest relates to the age of the winner, with ten of the last 16 winners being aged eight years or under.
One completely irrelevant snippet can be gleaned from the list of winning jockeys …… nine of the last 14 successful pilots have Christian names starting with the letter 'R'.
So, a quick glance at the entries, might lead you to conclude that the seven year old Possol, carrying 11st 1lb and ridden by Richard Johnson will win on Saturday!
Three that catch the eye at this early stage are Nacarat, Trabolgan and Kilcrea Castle.
The defending champion and impressive 2009 winner Nacarat looks a worthy market leader.
The grey nine-year-old put up a tremendous performance twelve months ago, with AP McCoy driving his mount from the front, getting some great jumps from his mount and coming clear from before home turn to beat Possol by nine lengths.
Nacarat went on to ruin a great race behind Voy Por Ustedes in a Grade One at Aintree.
This season expectations were high that Nacarat could develop into a top class three miler, but a poor effort at Exeter on his debut, followed by a feeble run over hurdles at Newbury put a dent into those ambitions.
Tom George's charge regained a lot of his credibility with a much better run in the King George, when taking on Kauto Star down the far side on the final circuit before having to give best against the mighty Ditcheat champion up the home straight.
Racing off a mark of 158 this weekend (won last year off 147), Nacarat will benefit from bring reunited with the champion jockey and looks certain to be a serious contender.
In 2004 Nicky Henderson saddled the veteran Marlborough to win this race off top weight, and this Saturday another veteran, the 12 year old Trabolgan, looks to have a sporting chance of at least making the frame.
Beset by injuries throughout his career, the King's Ride gelding has raced just eight times over fences and twelve times in total, but has put up some notable performances. His highlights have been a second spot in the Feltham, a win in the RSA (2005) and a success in the 2005 Hennessy at Newbury. Since that famous win at the Berkshire track, Trabolgan has been out just three times, but showed on his most recent run at Cheltenham in December that there is still fire in his belly.
Race off 138, the veteran ran a decent fourth to the progressive trio of The Package, The Tother One and Any Currency. If able to reproduce that form on a course he likes, Trabolgan could surprise a few of his younger rivals on Saturday.
If often pays to take note of ante-post market moves for these major handicaps and one entry that has been consistently supported since the weights were published has been Kilcrea Castle.
Emma Lavelle's Irish import was having his first run in the UK when an excellent third to the rejuvenated The Sawyer at Ascot last month.
Kilcrea Castle glided into contention from the halfway point, but in a fiercely run race, the eight-year-old was unable to sustain his effort from the home turn and his lack of race fitness showed. However, he finished a very respectable third, giving the strong impression that there would be better to come on his next start.
His back form in Ireland reveals a consistent performer with some good efforts in graded and handicap company. A mark of 142 looks very fair and bearing in mind the support seen in the last few days, it would be no surprise to see Kilcrea Castle in contention as the field come to the last three fences.
Latest prices from Blue Square are available now click here
Related Horse Racing Betting News
Read the latest Horse Racing news articles from sportingways.com
- Mullins clocks fastest century
- Tue 07 January 2012 15:26:00 - Willie Mullins has become the fastest trainer to reach 100 winners in a season in Ireland. The 55-year old brought up the landmark on Wednesday when Soll won a beginners chase race at..
- Henderson tempted to unleash Sprinter Sacre
- Wed 25 January 2012 16:44:00 - Nicky Henderson has been discussing his future plans for Spinter Sacre, saying that he is tempted to enter him at Doncaster on Saturday..
- Dream aimed at Irish Hennessey return
- Wed 25 January 2012 16:44:00 - The race against time to have the smart chaser Jessies Dream ready in time for the four-day Cheltenham Festival that begins on March 13 gathered pace as trainer Gordon Elliott pencilled in a return..
- Workmanlike win for Mullins' Apt Approach
- Wed 25 January 2012 16:44:00 - The Willie Mullins-trained Apt Approach warmed up for a likely crack at the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March with a gutsy success at Thurles, getting the better of last year's..
- World Cup entry for Ballydoyle's So You Think
- Wed 18 January 2012 10:25:00 - The Dubai World Cup has received a big boost with the news that the high-class middle distance performer So You Think has been given an entry into the world's richest race scheduled for the..
- Stars out to shine in Champion Hurdle
- Wed 18 January 2012 10:25:00 - Willie Mullins has all but ruled out the possibility of his smart performer Thousand Stars taking on the mighty Big Buck's over three miles in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at the Cheltenham..
- Lambro impresses despite Naas defeat
- Sat 14 January 2012 18:11:00 - The Willie Mullins-trained Lambro lost few friends when going down with all guns blazing to a three-and-a-half-length defeat at the hands of the very promising Flemenstar in the two-mile..
- Waley-Cohen free to ride Long Run in Gold Cup
- Wed 10 January 2012 20:54:00 - Last year's winning jockey Sam Waley-Cohen was a very relieved man after the BHA declared Long Run's regular pilot will be available to continue his association with the Nicky..
- Aerial presents his Cheltenham credentials
- Sat 07 January 2012 13:53:00 - Paul Nicholls looks to have a potentially smart handicap chaser on his hands in the shape of Aerial, a hugely impressive 10-length winner at Ascot recently and a horse who could..
- Thornton determined to be back for Cheltenham
- Sat 31 Decemer 2011 16:43:00 - The tremendously popular Robert ‘Chocolate’ Thornton has been rocked by the prediction of his specialist that the broken arm he sustained in a recent racecourse fall will take up..
- No weather worries this year for King George VI Chase
- Sat 24 Decemer 2011 13:43:00 - Kempton's clerk of the course Barney Clifford was in bullish move a week prior to the big race of the season at the Sunbury track, the Grade 1 William King George VI Chase, having seen the seven-day..
- Gold Cup Dream still alive for Irish hope Jessies
- Sat 24 Decemer 2011 13:43:00 - The Irish challenge for this year's Cheltenham Gold Cup is looking a little thin at present with only Quito de La Roque having really shown the kind of form that entitles him to consideration..
- Jacob optimistic Master will stay King George trip
- Tue 20 Decemer 2011 16:00:00 - Daryl Jacob is excitedly looking forward to his ride on serious contender Master Minded in the Grade 1 2011 King George VI chase at Kempton Park on Boxing Day even though he can't..
- Martin Keighley – Stable Focus
- Tue 20 Decemer 2011 16:00:00 - Steady improvement has been the hallmark of the Martin Keighley yard based in Condicote, Gloucestershire. Winners are always welcome by any stable and Keighley has provided those on..
- Overturn out to enhance Champion Hurdle claims
- Sat 10 Decemer 2011 08:40:00 - The trailblazing Overturn, a 20/1 for the Champion Hurdle in March, will attempt to complete a swift hattrick of high profile successes over timber when turning out at Cheltenham..
- Easing out to enhance Cheltenham Festival claims
- Sat 10 Decemer 2011 08:40:00 - Nicky Henderson's useful handicap chaser Quantitativeeasing is out for revenge on Saturday in the Spinal Research Atlantic 4 Gold Cup Chase at Cheltenham when he hopes..
- 'King George' favourite Long Run beaten but unbowed
- Wed 23 November 2011 11:50:00 GMT - As the dust settles after one of the greatest horse races you're ever likely to see, connections of Betfair Chase runner-up Long Run must barely be able to wait until..
- Bad day at the office for Grand National hope Chicago Grey
- Wed 16 November 2011 13:17:00 GMT - The Gordon Elliott-trained Chicago Grey did little to enhance his prospects for the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree in April when running a lack lustre..
- Union Rags targets Breeders Cup Juvenile
- Thu 27 October 2011 20:40:00 GMT - Union Rags goes into the Breeders' Cup Juvenile as favourite having remained unbeaten in his opening two starts of his two-year old career this season..
- Medici set to make Cesarewitch line-up
- Thu 22 September 2011 15:58:00 GMT - The Hughie Morrison-trained Cosimo de Medici looks set to make the list of starters for the Betfred Cesarewitch at Newmarket on October 8 having landed the Cesarewitch Trial Handicap last week over course and distance..
- Masked Marvel slated for Canadian International challenge
- Thu 22 September 2011 15:49:00 GMT - When he won the Group 1 Ladbrokes St Leger with Arctic Cosmos twelve months ago, John Gosden had every intention of sending his charge to tackle the Grade 1 Canadian International at Woodbine but that plan was scrapped..
- Born to Sea impresses with winning Curragh debut
- Tue 13 September 2011 16:42:00 GMT - When your half-brother is regarded as possibly the greatest racehorse to have been seen in the last 40 years it is always going to be difficult to live up to expectations, but in making a very impressive winning debut over six furlongs..
- Fairy bang on track to repeat last term's Far East heroics
- Sat 10 September 2011 19:27:00 GMT - Anyone who doubted that last season's star middle-distance filly Snow Fairy is as good as last term had those doubts washed easily away as the Ed Dunlop-trained star gave international super-horse So you Think a tremendous run..
