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Rugby World Cup Final Prediction
Author: Ian Hudson 04/10/2011
Wales look overpriced at 18.0 to win the Rugby Wold Cup for the first time. The pool stages have been completed and it's now a knockout tournament through to the final later in the month. New Zealand are trading at odds on to win the tournament in their own country but at that price I'd be looking to lay the hosts.
Dan Carter is arguably the best rugby player in the world. He is now out of the tournament through injury and if New Zealand are to lift the trophy they must do so without their most influential player.
Carter has scored 1250 points during his 85 cap career. He tore a groin tendon during kicking practice last Saturday. That ended his participation in the tournament and means New Zealand must win the World Cup for the first time in 24 years without their playmaker.
Colin Slade played at number 10 when New Zealand completed their schedule of pool matches against Canada. He has been encouraged by Carter to seize his opportunity and take advantage of his team mate's misfortune. Slade will never be as good as Carter but his side have enough strength in depth to cope with the absence of one player.
The All Blacks have not been tested in the tournament to date. There are reasonable excuses for moderate performances against Tonga and France. The coach made several substitutions when the match against Tonga was won and New Zealand were comfortable winners against France.
New Zealand now play Argentina in the last of the quarter finals on Sunday. The two countries have played each other 13 times and New Zealand have won twelve of these matches and drawn the other one. The average points difference per game is over 31 so it will be interesting to see what the handicap lines are for this match.
The last match between the sides was six years ago, with New Zealand winning by six points. The drawn match was back in 1985 so as a form guide that match is irrelevant. Carter is a huge loss but the squad have to come to terms with the absence of such an integral player. They should have enough to beat Argentina but the real test will come against South Africa or Australia in the semi-finals.
Wales have produced a fine run of form at this World Cup. They were only expected to beat Fiji by about 20 points in their final group game. Not only did they show great attacking flair but they also produced a fine defensive display in their 66-0 win. They were extremely solid in the pool matches and similar efforts can see them best Ireland in the quarter-finals.
The Welsh side have received a boost ahead of the match against Ireland with three key players passed fit to resume full training. James Hook, Shane Williams and Dan Lydiate are all available for selection at the weekend. They were not unduly missed during the pool stages but if Wales are to beat Ireland they need a full strength side performing at their best.
Wales have never won the World Cup and not even reached a final. They could have been backed at 100.0 before the tournament began, a price that was too dismissive of their chances. The last time they played Ireland was in the Six Nations in Cardiff in March. Wales won that match by six points so there is little to choose between the two sides.
The average points difference between the two sides is just over one point in favour of Wales. Ireland have shown a tremendous all round game and of course they beat Australia in the pool stages. They have shown they can beat any team in the world but Wales are full of confidence after a great effort to qualify from the pool for the last eight.
England play France in the quarter finals on Saturday. They have beaten their opponents four times in the last five matches between the sides. France are a team in disarray after an abysmal performance against Tonga. In that defeat there was no cohesion and direction and they only qualified for the knock-our stages with a try in the last minute.
England conceded just one try in the pool matches which gives them the best record of all teams in the group matches. The backs have also looked impressive, especially Chris Ashton, who is the leading try scorer at the tournament. They have a good opportunity to reach the final for the third successive tournament. It is only at this stage at they can meet a side from the Southern Hemisphere.
The remaining quarter final is between holders South Africa and Australia. The current world champions have the best defensive record, with just 24 points conceded in four pool matches. They have had tough matches against Wales and Samoa. South Africa have beaten just once in the knockout stages of the four tournaments they have contested.
The key factor in this match could well be the injuries within the Australian squad. A bad run of injuries before the tournament began has continued into the World Cup. Although they beat Russia with something to spare in the final pool match thy conceded three trys against the minnows. They have kicked 13 goals from 22 attempts and that stat alone does not suggest they can win this tournament.
Wales versus South Africa is a potential final and the price for that eventuality is 25.0 South Africa are the best team at this tournament and Wales can reach the final if they can beat Ireland and then probably England. They would be outsiders in a semi-final against England but a win in that match is not out of the question and that would set up a final against South Africa.
Rugby World Cup Final Prediction:
World Cup 2011 - Name the Finalists South Africa/Wales at 25.0 with Betfair
World Cup 2011 - Win the Final Wales at 18.0 with Betfair
Bet365 World Cup Rugby Odds