Tote Gold Trophy
Tote Gold Trophy ~ Is there a pot of Gold at the end of the Newbury home straight?
As befits the richest two mile handicap hurdle in the calendar, the Tote Gold Trophy - still the Schweppes to a certain generation! - has produced several top class renewals in recent years.Apart from the likes of Persian War and Make A Stand, who won the Newbury race before going onto Champion Hurdle success a month later, the race has also produced two Champion Hurdle winners this century - Rooster Booster and Punjabi, both of who only managed second spot in the Tote Gold Trophy.
The roll of honour in recent seasons points trend fiends in three directions - look at the Irish entry (two winners from the Emerald Isle since 2003) - consider the Gary Moore contenders (won last two runnings) and pay full respect to the Nicky Henderson runners (four wins since 1998).
Apart from those trainer trends, the anoraks have little else to cling onto with the age range of the recent winners varying from five to nine and the weight carried by the winner being anything from the ten stone minimum to 11 stone 7lbs.
The race will almost certainly feature a full field come the day, so any ante-post investments should be kept to an 'interest' level at this stage.
Three to consider before the weights are published are Tito Bustillo, Menorah and Stravinsky Dance.
Tito Bustillo was a decent performer for Carlos Laffron-Parias on the flat in France, winning a good class mile and a half handicap at Longchamp in the spring of 2009.
The son of Kahyasi was then sold to race for Paul Nicholls and made his debut over timber at Chepstow's October meeting.
The five year old showed a good aptitude for the winter game and came home comfortably clear of a modest bunch,
Nicholls immediately, and significantly, stepped Tito up to Grade Two for his second run, at the Open Meeting at Cheltenham. Weak in the market (3/1 out to 11/2), Ruby Walsh's mount ran a much better race than his final finishing position (5th) suggests.
Off a slow pace, Tito travelled noticeably well and having come to challenge the lead at the second last, he slipped on landing and then a blunder at the final flight sealed his fate.
A pair of Taunton wins have followed since Cheltenham, including a hard fought win over the useful The Betchworth Kid and then following up under a penalty last month.
Novice hurdlers are also hard to assess and off his current mark of 133, Tito Bustillo looks potentially well treated.
Menorah is another novice who commands respect.
An expensive foal (48,000 Euros), this son of King's Theatre raced just once for Thomas Mullins in Ireland last year when he easily won a bumper at Naas over an extended trip.
The fact that Menorah went off a short price (11/10) indicated that he was showing plenty at home.
Menorah was then sold privately to Diana Whateley and moved to her trainer Philip Hobbs.
After a routine debut success at Warwick last November, Hobbs then stepped up Menorah up to two and half miles at Doncaster - a trip that looked sure to suit on his Irish form.
However, the odds on chance failed to stay the distance and was eventually a ten lengths runner-up to Bobby Ewing.
Hobbs then dropped his charge back to the minimum trip at Christmas over Christmas. Looking to be up against it with the highly rated Bellvano in the field, Menorah showed an impressive level of form in dismissing the favourite by 12 lengths. The winning time was especially notable, comparing very favourably with the Christmas Hurdle run on the same card.
Menorah looks a serious fancy for the Supreme Novices' at the Festival, but could be very competitive off his handicap mark of 148. The same yard ran the novice County Zen to be third in the Tote Gold Trophy a year ago, and Menorah looks to be a class above that runner.
Stravinksy Dance is very much the dark horse in the Tote Gold Trophy, having never raced in the UK.
The five year old mare must have been showing connections plenty at home since her move from France, as she was notably well backed last month for the abandoned Ladbroke at Ascot (20/1 to 7/1) and there was also money for her at the Sandown meeting in the New Year that was lost to the frost.
It is very hard to weigh up her French form, although the value of her third, beaten just a length and a half, in the Grade 3 Prix Jacques d'Indy at Auteuil in the spring now looks stronger with the subsequent Grade One success by Long Run at Kempton last month.
Bearing in mind the strength in depth of the Henderson two mile handicappers, it is patently clear that they rate Stravinksy Dance to be a well handicapped mare on her UK mark of 138.
With the yard having such a great record in the Tote Gold Trophy in recent seasons, it would come as no surprise to see this mare start favourite at Newbury next month.
Latest Tote Gold Trophy prices from Blue Square available now click here (Each-way bets on 4 places at 1/4 odds 13th of February 2010 3:45pm)
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