It’s something that those who get involved in the US Open tennis betting need to bear in mind, though there’s little you can do to protect yourself against bad luck.
Certainly, last year there were a number of people who got burned when backing defending champion Juan Martin del Potro in pre-tournament betting.
The Argentine had had an injury-disrupted season, but the USTA were announcing as late as July 22 that he would be defending his title in New York. Del Potro himself was quiet on the subject of his wrist injury until just a week before the tournament, when he announced he was not fit enough to play.
The 2010 tournament was not only missing it’s defending men’s champion, but two of the big drawcards. Both Belgian Justine Henin and big home favourite Serena Williams were unfit. The 2011 US Open betting suggests there will be big names going into this tournament undercooked.
Rafael Nadal went to New York as the top seed, and duly confirmed that by winning the title.
The hoped-for clash with Roger Federer, though, did not materialise as the Swiss ace was beaten in the semi-finals by Novak Djokovic.
Not that Federer surrendered his title hopes without a fight, as he played his part in an epic match which went to five sets.
Twice, Federer took a one-set advantage only to be pegged back emphatically. It was a real two-and-fro affair, with Djokovic responding in the best possible style to losing the opening set as he won the second 6-1.
Again, after going 2-1 down in sets he lifted himself in the fourth as he won 6-2, before finally ending Federer’s heroic resistence 7-5 in the decider.
Nadal, meanwhile, had made light work of his opponents en route to the final. He saw off compatriot Fernando Verdasco in straight sets in the quarter-finals and overcame 12th seed Mikhail Youzhny in similar fashion in the semis.
How much effect his tiring semi-final had on Djokovic is uncertain, but he was not at his best in the final as Nadal won 6-4 5-7 6-4 6-2.

