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US Open Tennis Tip |
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by Ian Hudson
2011 US Open Tennis Tournament
29th - 11th September US Open , Flushing Meadows, New York, USA
Andy Murray had the perfect preparation for the US Open which begins next Monday. The world number four won the Cincinnati Masters tournament over the weekend and will arrive at the final Grand Slam event of the season full of confidence.
His victory on Sunday was not total perfection as his opponent, world number one Novak Djokovic, was forced to retire with a shoulder injury. Murray was leading 6-4, 3-0 but we must give Djokovic the benefit of the doubt as the injury clearly affected his ability to play his best.
Murray has yet to win a Grand Slam title but he was the runner-up at Flushing Meadow the last time he won in Cincinnati in 2008. Djokovic meanwhile has a week to rest and recover from an injury probably caused by his grueling schedule.
The top players plan to be feeling perfect fitness wise for the four Grand Slam championships. They often play with minor niggles and that's is why it can be so difficult to profitably trade on the sport. Injuries and motivation are key elements in backing winners but at least you know players will give maximum effort in the four most prestigious tournaments of the year.
For the first time in his career Murray is now third favourite in the betting for the US Open. He has historically been a bigger price than Roger Federer but on this occasion Murray's price has contracted to below the former number one's price and only Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are shorter than Murray.
The Scot will always have his critics until he finally wins a Grand Slam tournament. Tim Henman had an exceellent career on all surfaces. However, he will always be remembered by the British public as that well groomed guy who never won Wimbledon.
Henman was at his best during the Federer era and Murray will always have contemporizes in Nadal and Djokovic vying for the Grand Slams. Federer is somewhat older but Murray, Nadal and Djokovic are all in their mid twenties. While Murray is at his peak one or both of those two players will always have to be beaten if he is to win a Grand Slam.
Injuries could give Murray his opportunity and this year they seem to be working in his favour. If Djokovic has a suspect shoulder going in to this Grand Slam it will be difficult for him to perform at his best over the fortnight of the US Open.
Nadal won the US Open last year but his price is drifting on Betfair. His form at Montreal and Cincinnati suggests he is not fully fit. He has to raise his game from its level over the past fortnight if he is to reach another Grand Slam final. It's unwise to dismiss the world number one but he is only human and his body can only take so much.
Roger Federer has won five US Open titles and he is the most successful player in the modern era at these championships. He is scheduled to play Djokovic in the last four and Nadal in the finals. The player who has won more majors than any other player could well take advantage of the potential injuries to these two opponents and reach another Grand Slam final.
We've probably all heard that ironic comment that when Murray loses he is Scottish and when he wins he's British. How ever you wish to define his nationality this year's US Open provides a great chance for him to win a Grand Slam tournament. He is the player in form after Cincinnati and you would have to strongly fancy him to beat Federer in a potential final early next month.
Betfair have a market titled Big 4 v The Field. At the time of writing there is no liquidity in this market. However, the combined odds of the four highest seeds is odds on and I would expect the price of The Field to win to be about 2.5.
That would bring in Mardy Fish who has the best form leading up to the US Open. He won the title at Atlanta and reached finals at Los Angeles and Montreal. Fish could win a huge financial bonus if he won the US Open but I would still look to back the Big Four at the combined odds as their grand Slam pedigree is by far better than any other players in the draw.
Ian Hudson
23rd August 2011
Bet365 US Open Tennis Odds