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US Open Tennis Tip |
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by Ian Hudson
2011 US Open Tennis Tournament
29th - 11th September US Open , Flushing Meadows, New York, USA
There were 27 completed matches in the first round of the Women's singles in the US Open yesterday. These matches involved 11 seeded players and only one seed lost in the opening round. However, that player was Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova who lost in straight sets to Alexandra Dulgheru from Romania.
Kvitova is seeded five and is number six in the world so her loss to a player who is at number 49 in the current world rankings was a major surprise. She became the first reigning Wimbledon champion to lose in the first round of the US Open in the open era.
At one stage during yesterday's play it looked like Maria Sharapova was also facing a first round exit. She was a set and a break down to Heather Watson who is ranked number three in Great Britain. Watson was making her first appearance in the senior draw after winning the junior title two year ago,
There were four other matches involving players seeded from 1 to 16 yesterday and the seeded player didn't drop a set in any of those matches. Number two seed Vera Zvonareva lost fewest games of the quartet, covering the handicap of 7.5 by 1.5 games. The other three players won their matches with an overall games ascendancy of less than 7.5.
That is an interesting statistic in the context of Serena Williams' first round match against Bojana Jovanovski of Serbia. You can back Williams giving her opponent a 6.5 game start which basically equates to the US player winning about 6-3 6-3.
This is the first time the players have met on the WTA tour. This year they have both played the same player just twice. The crossover match comparison stats indicate that Williams has beaten both common opponents and Jovanovski has lost both matches. Sharapova is the only common opponent in 2011 on hardcourts. Williams won that match in straight sets while Jovanovski lost her match in straight sets.
The games comparisons numbers are interesting in assessing Williams' chances of covering the handicap. In the two matches against common opponents Serena has achieved an ascendancy of 14 games while in corresponding matches the Serb has lost 16 more games than she has won. That suggests to me that Williams can beat the handicap in today's match.
Caroline Wozniacki, the number one seed and world number one, plays her first match of the championships today. Her opponent is Nuria Llagostera-Vives of Spain who has played in six US Opens and lost in the first round on each occasion. This is the first time the two players have met on the circuit.
There are two comparison matches for these players in 2011 and Wozniacki has won both while her opponent has won one. The comparative game winning numbers are much closer for this match. On average Wozniacki has won four games more than her opponent per match against common opposition. However, the figures are weighted a great deal more in Wozniacki's favour in the one hardcourt match against common opposition this year.
The closest match of the day in terms of prices is between Mathilde Johansson and Carla Suarez Navarro. This is the only women's match on day 2 in which one major bookmaker can not find a favourite. You can back your choice at 5/6 though Suarez Navarro is a favourite on Betfair.
Johansson has won 22 of the 62 matches she has played on the main tour. She reached her highest rank for singles of 59 in April 2009. She is currently at number 65 in the rankings and has a 50% success rate for singles matches played this year. However, Suarez Navarro reached number 22 in the world two years ago and has a superior match winning percentage this year so has the experience and form to win a close match.
Trading advice
3* Serena Williams to beat Bojana Jovanovski -6.5 at 1.63 with Betfair.
2* Carla Suarez Navarro to beat Mathilde Johansson at 1.81 (5/6 with StanJames
3* Maria Sharapova to win the tournament at 7.0 with Betfair
Ian Hudson
30th August 2011
Bet365 US Open Tennis Odds