Welsh National

Welsh National Chepstow on 27th December 2009

One of the highlights of the Festive season is the perennial marathon test that is the Welsh National.

Invariably run on hock deep ground at Chepstow, the 3m 6f trip suits only the stoutest of stayers.

However, the roll of honour features a mixture of the top class - Burrough Hill Lad, Playschool, Carvill's Hill, Master Oats and Notre Pere - together with Grand National winners Rag Trade, Corbiere, Earth Summit, Bindaree and Silver Birch - as well as the out-and-out sloggers - Narvik, Bonanza Boy, L'Aventure and Miko de Beauchene.

The ante-post market has a typically open look about it at this stage with no entry looking to have an outstanding chance.

Following is a brief summary look at ten of the main contenders:-

Le Beau Bai - It seems a while know since Richard Lee was winning major races. In the 1990's the likes of Space Fair, Super Coin and Macgeorge won at the major Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals, and in the young Le Beau Bai, he could have another potential big race winner. After warming up in a hot handicap hurdle at Cheltenham behind Lie Forrit last month, Le Beau Bai showed his appreciation of soft ground and his liking for Chepstow when sauntering home in a three mile handicap chase earlier this month. The winner of eight of his 20 career starts, the six-year-old has been raised to a mark of 148 by the handicapper, but races off his old level of 139 in the Welsh National. Having been cut to 12/1 after his last win, Le Beau Bai now looks set to head the market on 28th December.

Beroni - Few trainers command more respect in jump racing either side of the Irish Sea than the quietly spoken Willie Mullins. The shrewd operator looks to have a live chance in the Welsh marathon with the progressive Beroni. The 7 year-old has won both his starts this term, over hurdles at Galway and then the prestigious Troytown Chase at Navan last month. In the latter contest, Paul Townend exuded total confidence in his mount's ability and he was justified in doing so as the son of Accordion cruised home to beat Casey Surpeme by a contemptuous four lengths. Whilst the handicapper has responded accordingly by putting Beroni on a mark of 148, this still looks a commercial assessment and Beroni will surely go close to giving Ireland back-to-back successes in the Welsh National.

Silver Nature - Race fans of a certain age will remember trainer Helen Hamilton and her dour stayer Peaty Sandy who made the long trek from Scotland to South Wales in 1981 to land the Welsh National under the leading amateur of the day Geordie Dun. Lucinda Russell looks set to make the long journey from her base at Arlary to Chepstow after Christmas with Silver By Nature. The 7 year-old grey looks attractively positioned in the long handicap on 10st 2lb and as a thorough stayer who jumps well and loves soft ground, he appeals as a live contender for races such as the Welsh National. A breathing problem hindered his progress last season, but the operation he underwent in the summer looks to have worked a treat judged on his sparkling reappearance at Carlisle last month.

The Tother One - When bookmakers look at the lists of runners and riders each day, few combinations strike more fear than the Nicholls/Walsh combination and it is entirely possible that the layers will be starring down the barrel of considerable liabilities on 28th December should the deadly duo pitch up with The Tother One. This lightly raced entry has failed to hit the frame just once (when falling at Newbury) from his ten career starts and could improve for this step up in trip. He ran a promising race on his seasonal debut at Wincanton last month, when running second to Ellerslie George in the Badge Ales Trophy. That speed favouring track would not have played to his strengths and in the circumstances, the run was excellent. Few jockeys can compare with Ruby Walsh when it comes to getting mounts to jump and conserve ground in marathon races and he could go close to giving him his second Welsh National.

Companero - Former top class and unbeaten Irish pointer, Companero looks the sort to give the powerful Graham Wylie/Howard Johnson axis a decent shot at winning this big prize at Chepstow. Beaten just once over hurdles last season (on debut at Ayr), the 9 year-old took well to fences, winning at Carlisle, Hexham and Ayr before a step in class in the Towton at Wetherby proved too much (finished 3rd to Kornati Kid). Companero ran really well to run the classy stayer Money Trix to six lengths at Carlisle last month on his seasonal debut and with the mud likely to be flying at the Welsh venue, this son of Supreme Leader will have conditions to suit. His one weakness looks to be his jumping and, as his run in the Towton showed, once he failed to get into a rhythm his jumping was less than fluent.

Old Benny - When winning the four miler at the 2008 Cheltenham Festival, Old Benny announced himself a serious stayer with the potential to compete in Nationals for seasons to come. He duly started favourite to win the 2008 Scottish National and ran a respectable race to finish fourth at Ayr. After suffering a leg injury when out at grass in the summer of 2008, Old Benny was off the track until coming back at Newbury over hurdles last month. Given a patient and considerate ride by Wayne Hutchinson, Old Benny showed he retained his ability and looks sure to be primed for all the major staying contests this season. Old Benny is currently assessed on a mark of 134, putting on the 10st mark in the long handicap for the Welsh National and given the high regard in which he is held by Alan King, this looks a very competitive level.

Halcon Genelardais - One of the best performances by a young stayer in recent seasons was posted by Halcon Genelardais in December 2006 when the then 6 year-old won the Welsh National off 11st 3lb (official mark 143), giving no less than a stone to the subsequent Grand National winner Mon Mome. Now rated a stone higher by the handicapper, the Alan King trained chestnut can still be competitive in the Welsh National, especially when you take into account that as well as his win in 06, Halcon Genelardais has also finished 2nd in 07 (off 156) and 3rd in 08 (off 164). Facing an impossible task in the Betfair Chase, he ran a satisfactory race behind Kauto Star last month and will have been trained with this race in mind all season.

Flintoff - Part owned by the legendary cricketer, Flintoff is another of the batch of horses moved to Welsh trainer Tim Vaughan from Venetia Williams earlier in the year. This thorough stayer has not won since hacking up at Newbury in January 2007 off a mark of 122. The eight-year-old is now rated 140 by the handicapper and showed he was up to winning off that sort of mark when a fine second in the valuable Midlands National at Uttoxeter in March (raced off 136). Conditions need to be virtually unraceable for Flintoff to show his best, and as such ground often prevails for this contest, Flintoff must come into calculations.

Operation Houdini - The Irish training community have mastered the art of preparing their staying handicap chasers by running over hurdles. Ever since Papillon landed a huge gamble in the 2000 Grand National, many Irish handlers have favoured the hurdles route for their chasers. But for unseating Slippers Madden in the Troytown at Navan last month, Operation Houdini would be running at Chepstow as the winner of his last four starts. Only one of his recent wins came over the larger obstacles (Galway in October), making it hard for the handicapper to get a handle on his true merit. The seven-year-old loves soft ground and should be suited by this marathon trip.

Hello Bud - Nigel Twiston-Davies has twice won the Welsh National in recent years, with those grand stayers Earth Summit and Bindaree. Whether Hello Bud is in their class is doubtful, but the eleven-year-old did show by winning the Scottish National in April that he relishes a marathon trip. Hello Bud won the Ayr race off a mark of 133, but now races off 142 and may struggle to cope with that new assessment. His best form has also come on better ground than that he is likely to encounter at Chepstow.

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