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WGC HSBC Champions 2011 Prediction
Author: Ian Hudson 31/10/2011
October 2011: 3rd - 6th European Tour & Asian Tour: WGC-HSBC Champions, TBA, China
Rory McIlroy is as short as 5/1 to win the World Golf Championship HSB Champions which takes place this week at the Sheshan International Golf Club in Shanghai, China. The tournament was first staged in 2006 and this is the third year that it has been a World Golf Championship event.
Last year Francesco Molinari held off Lee Westwood for a wire-to-wire victory. The tournament had been a regular European Tour event for four years. It marked its WGC status with Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods playing in the final group. Mickelson prevailed then and the American is the only player to have won the event twice.
A strong field will be assembled in China but the world number one Luke Donald is absent as his wife is about to give birth. Keegan Bradley, winner of the 2011 US PGA Championship, plays this week which means the four current major champions are in the field. The other major winners are Charl Schwartzel (US Masters), McIlroy (US Open) and Darren Clarke (Open Championship)
Nick Watney and Adam Scott are also competing which means the four reigning World Golf Championship winners will be playing in China this week. Every qualifying champion from the European Tour is playing this week, including three-time winner Thomas Bjorn, the winner of the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf championship, Martin Kaymer, and winner of the Volvo World Championship, Paul Casey.
The field looks like being one of the most international assembled at a World Championship event with 18 nations represented. The highest ranked player is Lee Westwood at number two in the world rankings. Four players from the top 10 in the current standings are playing at Sheshan this week.
Some of the greens on the host course have a great deal of slope and a false front which will make them pacy and very challenging. The fairways are of average width but the rough is quite penal. Accuracy from the tee and fairways is required as there are water hazards on ten holes. The course will play tougher than last year due to firmer greens and new tees.
The average winning score over the six year history of the event is almost 16 under and last year Francesco Molinari won the tournament with a score of 19 under. The modifications to the course will make such low scoring more difficult and something as big as 10 under could be good enough to win the trophy this week.
The general tree-lined nature of the fairways and the number of water hazards means that players who excel in driving accuracy will be at an advantage. Iron shots to the greens have to be accurate to reach the easier levels and players who hit the greens in regulation will have to hole a fair share of putts to get in contention.
Sergio Garcia has the right skills profile for the course, is a former winner and arrives on the back of wins in consecutive weeks in Europe. In the last two weeks he has risen from 49 in the world to inside the top 20. It's a rare achievement to win back-to-back but to win again the following week is almost unprecedented. I won't be backing Garcia this week as at some stage mental letdown will kick in and he would have to be at very best to beat this field.
McIlroy is a worthy favourite but the price is too low to warrant a bet. He may well win by five shots but I would be more inclined to laying him at the odds available. He is the top 15 for greens in regulation and total putts when reaching the greens in the correct number of shots. He won the Shanghai Masters last weekend and again it would be quite demanding to win again so soon, especially as he now has £1.25 million to spend and the company of his tennis playing girlfriend, Caroline Wozniacki.
Francesco Molinari won the tournament last year and I can see him getting in contention to successfully defend the title. He had a solid tournament at the Andalucia Masters last week when he finished in the top ten on the demanding Valderrama course in southern Spain. He is one of just a handful of players in the top 50 for each of the three key skills.
My idea of the winner would be Lee Westwood. He was second a year ago and lost in a play-off in 2007 so has decent course form. He is another player inside the top 50 for the three key skills. Tee to green Westwood is possibly the best player in the world so if he applies his accuracy skills and has a decent week on the greens he could well win a WGC event for the first time in his career.
Golf Betting Tip: Lee Westwood at 10.5 with Betfair